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Budget Strategy Paper discloses the broad parameters of fiscal policies in advance of the Executive's Budget Proposal; outlines the government's economic forecast, anticipated revenue, expenditures, and debt. This paper presents to the Council of Ministers (CoM) the fiscal strategy for the financial year (FY) and outlines the economic and political climate and recommended resource ceiling within which the FY Budget is to be prepared. The paper adopts a medium-term strategic view, providing an assessment of the macroeconomic outlook for Somalia over the medium-term. It then provides a summary analysis of the Federal Government of Somalia’s (FGS) fiscal performance, as well as a forward-looking discussion of fiscal risks and assumptions drawing on this performance assessment. With an understanding of the macroeconomic outlook and historical fiscal performance, the paper then presents a fiscal forecast for the medium-term, outlining FGS budget principles, fiscal rules, and outlining the overall indicative resource ceiling for this period. Finally, the paper concludes by applying the indicative resource ceiling to the FGS’s Ministries, Departments, and Agencies (MDAs) to derive detailed expenditure ceilings for each entity over the medium-term, as well as indicate a timetable for FY Budget Preparation.

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